The Valley Forecaster

Vallecito Lake forecast

Blended from several models, corrected to the lakeside station, and graded against it every day.

64°
Patchy Smoke
High 86° · Low 60° · feels 64°
Marina lakeside station · 10:02 PM MDT
Air 59 · Moderate

Low 90s through Sun, cooling to the low 80s by Wed. Afternoon storm chances Mon–Wed.

Hour by hour

Now
71°
10 PM
70°
11 PM
69°
12 AM
67°
1 AM
66°
2 AM
65°
3 AM
64°
4 AM
62°
5 AM
61°
6 AM
60°
7 AM
60°
8 AM
64°
See how much the models disagree — drag through the next 48 hours

The bold line is the corrected blend; the shaded band is how far the models disagree. Drag across it — or focus it and use .

Drag or use · the band is model spread, the line is the corrected blend.

Next seven days

Bars share one temperature scale, so you can read the week at a glance. Tap any day for the model spread, the correction, and the record.

ThuAug 6Cloudy
90°60°1%
Model range 90–91° · low 60°
FriAug 7Sunny
90°61°2%
Model range 86–92° · low 61°
SatAug 8Showers
87°60°18%
Model range 84–90° · low 60°
SunAug 9Showers
88°60°25%
Model range 83–92° · low 60°
MonAug 10Showers
86°60°48%
Model range 81–90° · low 60°
TueAug 11Showers
85°57°58%
Model range 80–91° · low 57°
WedAug 12Showers
82°57°69%
Model range 78–91° · low 57°

Live radar

Precipitation radar

The latest radar frame over the San Juans (RainViewer). Loads when you scroll here to keep the page light.

Radar RainViewer · base map CARTO/OpenStreetMap · data NOAA/NWS.

Right now · elevation gradient

Lake vs. the high country

The lake sits at about 7,665 ft; Big Bear Park (station BBRC2) is up at 10,341 ft, ≈2,700 ft higher toward the Weminuche. The difference between them is the gradient that flat forecasts miss.

64°
the lake · 7,665 ft
even
64°
10,341 ft · Big Bear Park (BBRC2)

Why it differs from your phone

Most apps read one model and smooth the terrain flat. We pull several — NWS, GFS, ECMWF, ICON — pin them to the lake's real elevation, and blend them, then correct toward the marina's lakeside station. That's why it can disagree with your phone.

Sources: NWS · GFS · ECMWF · ICON. · Ground truth: the lakeside marina station. See how we verify.